No 1 Lay System Review
The first selections for No 1 Lay System were made on 16th of August so, in a little over 3 months, the system has gained 30.12 points from 49 selections, 47 of which were successful.
This gave a strike rate of 95.9% which is in line with that claimed on the website.
The system does require a high strike rate given the maximum price for lays is 17.0 [16/1] so it was nice to get off to a really good start building up the bank so that when the first loser came along there was plenty in the bank to stay in profit.
I shall certainly carry on using this system as, like the title says, it really has proven to be the No 1 Lay System I have tested.
This was the second system I have tested by the author Derek Nadin and again on the evidence of the past 3 months I have no hesitation in placing the system in the approved section as I see this as a long term steady profit maker.
I would also state that Derek answered any queries very quickly and politely.
My thanks to Sam for allowing me to test the system on his site.
No 1 Lay System can be found here
Dear Ivor,
Please tell me about the first system you tested by Derek Nadin; was it a backing or Laying system and what was it’s name as I’d be interested in purchasing it if you can recommend it.
What sort of profits did it make???.
Best regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Hello Jeffrey.The system was called 50% Favourite System and was a backing system.If you go to the Approved list on the homepage you can read Sam’s one off review.I did buy the system and for the last 2 years it doubled my small bank and then I stopped for the year[it is not used all year round but starts in April and goes on until fairly late on in the year].It gets it’s name from it’s 50% strike rate which Sam backtested.When I used it, it fell a little below the 50% strike rate but was still profitable over the 2 years I have so far used it.Hope this helps.
Dear Ivor,
Thanks for your lovely reply to my query about the 50% Favourite system and 188 points profit to level stakes over the last 5 years and every year a profitable one is impressive to me so I’d like to purchase the system but can you tell me whether it revolves around “unnamed” Favourites and NOT named horses for its selections???.
Ivor is it easy to understand and follow like the NO.1 LAY system by Derek Nadin that I’ve just bought this week or do I need to be a rocket scientist or an Albert Einstein to follow this 50% Favourite system???.
Unlike Lay systems can we place our bets in the morning and get on with our work commitments???.
Best Regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Hello again Jeffrey.The 50% Favourites system is very easy to use and the favourite you back is the “unnamed favourite” so bets can be placed early in the day.I contacted Derek the author to see if it is still available and he says if you contact customer services at Sportsworld Publishing they will sort out a copy for you.Although as stated the system is very easy to use should you have any queries Derek is excellent in answering any questions and I would also try to help if I can.
Dear Ivor,
I’ve managed to have one LAY bet so far this week with LORD DEEVERT on 27/11/10 and it was bad luck tonight as he would have been another successful lay bet again but for there was only 8 runners – DAMN IT!!!.
Derek Nadin has a thing about the jockey Adam Kirby and my worry is that Derek might decide to exclude another jockey say next year so how do we contact him about this problem???.
Ivor although I’ve just purchased his No.1 Lay system there wasn’t a contact e-mail address for Derek Nadin.
What would you advise doing about the long shots like the 16.50 (15.50/1) etc. as there is very little liquidity even a couple of minutes before the off time with these outsiders and to get all of ones stake on BETFAIR would offer me say some of my stake at say 16.50, but most of my stake at longer odds like 17.50, 18.50 and 19.50 and then the horses BSP could end up at say 19.50 which Derek would declare as a NO BET???.
So far all of the horses that have ended up with a BSP of longer than 17.00 have lost but one did win at 21.0 (20/1) during your 3 month trial – OH CRIKEY!!!.
Best Regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Hello Jefrey.Personally I would never lay above the maximum of 17.0 as I do like to stick strictly to the rules and Derek also states never to lay below the minimum number of runners.I have contacted Derek and as you have purchased the system he states that sending you his email address so that he can personally answer any further queries is fine so you shall receive this today.
dear Ivor,
I’ve purchased Derek Nadins No.1 Lay system and find rule No.10 a strange one and Derek says that qualifiers ridden by Adam Kirby have produced 3 losing bets out of just 9 but he doesn’t say over what period of time this happened.
If it is over the year 2009 then by disregarding Rule No. 10 the net profit figure would probably be reduced from around 111 points to possibly around the 94 point mark which is still a great result for a years betting!!!.
Ivor during your 3 month trial of this system how many qualifying bets did you come across ridden by Adam Kirby and what would have been the result if one Layed them???.
Best Regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Hello Jeffrey.Unfortunately I did not keep a record of the number of qualifiers ridden by A.kirby but I do seem to remember one of them winning and thinking at the time I was glad I stuck to the rules so I think I’ll continue to do so Jeffrey.Sorry I was not able to give an exact answer to your question.
Dear Ivor,
During your 3 month trial of the No.1 Lay system I think on one day you had a qualifier that won at around 5/1 but there had been one non runner after you placed your bet bringing the field down to only 9 runners so as far as Derek Nadins system goes it was a void bet.
Can you remember at roughly what time you placed that bet as I intend to use BETFAIRS BSP facility as I have work commitments etc. to meet and I was planning on placing my bets at 12 noon every day but that might be too early to catch all the NON RUNNERS and I don’t want to have say 4 or 5 Lay bets in one race and find out after the race that one NON RUNNER reduced the field to only 9 runners!!!.
Tomorrow 10/12/10 we have no less than 3 races all with 10 runners declared and and eight “poosible” Lays and FIVE “possible” qualifiers in the the 2.40 race at Southwell alone – OH CRIKEY!!!.
Best Regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Hello Jeff.That bet would have been placed before 11a.m. and as you rightly say would have been a void bet as per the rules of the system. A bit more risky tomorrow to place early bets I think purely because just 1 non runner will, under the system rules, mean that the race is void.I think that Derek placed his bets as early as 11.30 a.m. when most non runners had been declared and perhaps were still one or two runners above the minimum required as a bit of insurance. If there were any further reductions in the fields taking them below the minimum number of runners this meant that these results were not then included in his records whether they won or lost. So to recap,it’s up to the individual tomorrow as to their decision whether to bet or not but perhaps just one non runner declared early will mean the decision will not be necessary.Good luck.
Dear Ivor,
Thanks for your lovely e-mail just read and luckily by 09.40 a.m today there has been a non runner in all three races today where there were “possible” qualifiers bringing the field down to 9 runners in all 3 races!!!.
I have a hospital appointment this afternoon 25 miles away in Cambridge so would have to put my No.1 Lay bets on using BETFAIRS BSP facility and I’d have to payout 16 points on every winner when the average SP on BETFAIR for winners is around 8.78 (7.78/1) although to compensate for that as the average SP of the losers is around 11.28 (10.28/1) I would win 1.47 points net of 5% commission on every horse that lost.
Using BETFAIRS BSP facility I would need a strike rate of 91% to BREAK EVEN on the year and a strike rate of 95% should produce a 114 point net profit but it is far more hairy using BSP than betting in the “live” market say three minutes before the scheduled off time!!!.
Ivor I know that Derek Nadin has a tipping line that he charges £40 a month to join can you tell me what time of day do the “selections” become available as I plan to place my BSP bets on at 12 noon every day and IF Dereks selections are available before then then I’d have to take the gamble and hope that there are no more NON RUNNERS after 12 noon!!!.
How many times in a year that might happen I’ll find out during the next 12 months and what affect it has betting in 9 or 8 runner races I hope won’t be a disaster – OH CRIKEY!!!.
Best Regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Hello Jeffrey.Below is a reply I got a while ago stating how Derek places his bets which I hope you will find useful and informative and will also save you the £40 per month fee[this saving would help to pay for any unsuccessful lays or perhaps all of them depending on how much you place on each bet].Hi Ivor, In reply to your queries, The time I stated to place the bets is normally when the non-runners have been declared, with this being an all-weather system ( and the majority of non-runners are made through the change in going i.e weather conditions ) plus also a lot of these low class handicaps have more than 10 declared runners, which would make allowances for the odd non-runner. In the times I have been placing the bets this has not happened, because if after non-runners there was under 10 this would be a no bet race ( win or lose ) not to say this will never happen, as racing is racing, so all the results on sportsworld’s website are correct. Hope this helps. Regards Derek.
Hope the above passage from Derek helps.He had previously stated that he places his bets between 10.30 and 11.30,all bets within the limit were placed immediately and any outside the limit he left to get matched at the maximum price of 17.0 using the “keep” facility.Please don’t think that I’m telling you what to do with your money but merely trying to save you from unnecessary expense.
Dear Ivor,
Thanks for your lovely e-mail just read and it appears that Derek Nadin gives his No.1 Lay selections out to his clients at 11.30 am so my idea of placing my bets at 12 noon and using BETFAIRS BSP facility should catch MOST of the NON RUNNERS – I hope!!!.
Talking on that subject I feel sick as a dog today as the three races today with “possible” qualifiers in all had ONE NON RUNNER in them making 9 runners in each race and the FIVE horses that met the maximum price of 17.0 ALL LOST and by using the BSP facility I would have made 10.45 points net profit today instead of 4.75 points net profit by betting in the “live” market just before the off time – DAMN IT!!!.
What a pity the rules don’t allow for betting in 9 to 15 runner races – SUCH IS LIFE!!!.
This is the bonus of using the BSP facility as the succesful Lay bets were at 6.74, 7.31, 8.00, 9.00 and 12.38 BSP but the downside is that if say any one of those horses had won I would have to pay out at 17.0 (16/1) to the lucky punters!!!.
Ivor I’ve calculated that a strike rate of 91% is needed for the BSP method to BREAK EVEN and with a 90% strike rate it would make a whopping great 50 points net LOSS on 190 bets a year whereas betting in the “live” market before the scheduled off time would make around 14 points net PROFIT – Hmm!!!.
Therefore provide the annual strike rate is better than 91% I should make health profits and infact with a 93% strike rate I should make around 66 points net profit a year and with my 64 points betting bank I could DOUBLE my stakes every year – WOW!!!.
This is all based on the average losers ( successful bets) price of 11.28 (10.28/1) and the average winners (unsuccesful bets) price of 8.78 (7.78/1) and there being around 180 to 190 bets a year.
Best Regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Dear Ivor,
Well I’ve had my fingers burned twice now when using BETFAIRs BSP facility as today I only got 75.7% of my intended stake “matched” on JONNIE SKULL and last week only 88.3% of my required stake “matched” on ROSY DAWN.
The help desk people at BETFAIR tell me that they can’t guarantee that I’ll always manage to get all my required stake “matched” when using their BSP facility so in practice it’s proving to me to be next to useless because when a Lay bet wins which can happen 10 or 12 times in a year you can bet your bottom dollar that ALL MY STAKE will magically be “matched” and I’d lose 16 points on every winner!!!.
Today on JONNIE SKULL I only won 1.97 points net profit instead of 2.60 points net profit as the horses’ BSP was 6.83 (5.83/1) so when we divide 5.83 into our liability figure and deduct 5% commission I should have won 2.60 points net profit.
The help desk operator tells me that had JONNIE SKULL won I would only had lost 12.11 points not the 16.00 points expected so this using BSP facility at 12 noon every day is like betting blind in poker!!!.
Ivor I will have to bet in the “live” market two to three minutes before the scheduled off time and then I will know for sure that 100% of my stake is “matched” and when the “live” odds are pushing close to or above17.0 (16/1) and I can’t get any or all of my stake “matched” there is a chance that I’ll get the balance “matched” in running which happened with BOBS DREAMFLIGHT on November 30th when I managed to get 62.6% of my intended stake “matched” at 14.0 in running where in the “live” market three to one minute before the off time it was trading at between 16.50 to 19.00 although its BSP ended up at 15.50!!!.
Ivor I’d much appreciate it if you know from other No.1 Layers how to get round this problem of getting all ones stake “matched” when Lay betting as this problem doesn’t exist with betting on horses to win!!!.
Best Regards,
JEFF. EDWARDS
Good luck with whichever way you choose to use it Jeffrey.
Hello Jeffrey.With regards to stakes being matched, the way I see it is the money is there to be matched or it isn’t and you do seem to be exploring all avenues by trying to get matched in running.My bets are very small so I have no problem and as previously stated I place my bets early if within limits and leave all others to get matched by placing a lay bet at 17.0 and using the “keep” facility.If they are then not matched I just accept the fact. One thing that may help is to perhaps open accounts with other betting exchanges who may be able to match anything that is not matched at Betfair.In answer to your last question about other No 1 lay system users,no other user has been in contact so they are probably using far smaller stakes than you are Jeffrey.Sorry I could not be of further help but perhaps other No1 lay system users will reply with a solution.